Obama Holds Gains

From the pre-nomination period (April) to the immediate post-nomination period (June),
Obama expanded his lead among young people from 19 points to 27 points. This survey shows
that lead stabilized, as Obama currently dominates McCain 60 – 33 percent among young people.
Historically, this lead exceeds Kerry’s margin among youth (54 – 45 percent) and reflects the
Democratic Congressional margin in 2006.

Obama’s margin does not change much among likely voters (61 – 34 percent). We see
some polarization along racial lines, as white youth withdraw somewhat (from a 51 – 42 percent
Obama lead to a 46 – 45 statistical tie) while young people of color deliver an even higher
margin (now 80 percent Obama, up from 74 percent) for this historic candidacy. More specific
problems emerge among white men and white Democrats, as well as voters in the Central and
West regions, where much of the anti-Obama television has occurred. Most of these losses are
modest and do not yet represent a significant trend given the overall stability of Obama’s
standing among youth.
Young people under significant economic stress clearly look for alternatives to this
Republican economy. Obama’s margin balloons to 41 percent among young people with four or more forms of debt (student loans, credit cards, medical bills, etc.) and to 54 percent among
voters facing a heavy financial stress. Some of this trend, of course, reflects a more Democratic
outlook among more lower income young people, but Obama’s margin exceeds Democratic
expectations among financially stressed youth; among financially clear young people, Obama’s
margin just meets Democratic expectations.

McCain Let Up Off the Mat, Obama Remains Strong

John McCain posts a very slight recovery in favorability among young people. This
reflects, in part, some improvement in the Republican brand which remains severely damaged,
but not quite as disastrous as was the case in July. Both the favorability ratings for Bush and for
the Republican Party show some murmurs of life after collapsing in our last survey. It is also at
least arguable that progressives are missing their opportunity to define the Republican candidate.

Overall, John McCain’s favorability scores improve from 30 percent favorable, 49
percent unfavorable to 34 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable, an 8-point net swing. It is
important to remember that McCain once enjoyed reasonably strong 35 favorable, 37 percent
unfavorable marks in April, so the “improvement” here is only relative to his appalling performance in the July survey. Still, this improvement comes among both Democrats and
Independents (not among, interestingly, Republicans) and among white youth, he moves to even
favorable (41 percent) and unfavorable (40 percent) marks.
Obama’s are steady at 56 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable, though among white
youth, he slips from 45 – 37 percent favorable to 45 – 44 percent favorable.

Youth Under Economic Stress

Nearly half (47 percent) say they are one paycheck away from having to borrow money
from credit cards or from their parents to make ends meet. Even among Republicans (47
percent), full-time workers (46 percent), white college educated youth (42 percent) and married
young people (41 percent), there emerges considerable economic instability.

Much of the problem is rooted in debt. All told, 76 percent of young people hold some
type of debt and a third (32 percent) are still paying off their student loans. While young people
who face severe economic crises such as having their utilities cut off or losing credit, etc. remain
a minority, seven in ten young people at least know someone close to the financial brink.
Gas prices are, of course, a major concern among young people. In a recent survey of
youth that GQR conducted for Qvisory, young people identified gas prices as their leading
financial concern. This is also an issue where McCain and Republicans have, at least, an
argument. Young people in this survey divide evenly on whether drilling for coastal oil is a good
idea (44 percent say this drilling will hurt the environment and not help with gas prices; 44
percent say it is a good idea and will decrease gas prices). Even among liberal Democrats, only
51 percent support the environmental position here. Among young people facing a heavy
financial burden—an overwhelmingly Democratic group (58 percent Democratic, just 16 percent
Republican)—nearly 48 percent believe drilling in coastal regions is a good idea.

Progressives need to focus more on how young people experience the economy directly.
Generally speaking, young people do not hear the kind of economic policies that can make a real
difference in their lives. The price of gas issue is but one example. It is also about debt, about the
policies that allow them to purchase affordable health care and about opportunities for good
paying, entry level jobs… (read full)